Davydenko's Breakthrough

It's weird to write that someone has just had a breakthrough when they've been in the top 10 of men's tennis since June 6, 2005, and in the top 5 since October 30, 2006, peaking at #3 for a total of 16 weeks. Rankings history here.

But Davydenko had a breakthrough this week. Like my favorite player, James Blake, he has earned high rankings despite not winning any grand slams or even being a contender. Davydenko has earned his high rankings because Federer and Nadal have won and been finalists in most of the grand slams, and consistently being in the QF and SF of big tournaments. He did win the Paris Masters Series event in 2006 (kudos deserved), but that was an event where all the big names qualified for the Masters Cup pulled out (Federer, Nadal, Nalbandian, and Roddick didn't show, and Gasquet and Haas withdrew during the tournament). He faced Ancic (#11) and Robredo (#7) but no one else in the top 20. (Hello, he double-bagelled C. Rochus in the 2nd round, wow.)

Davydenko, it could be said, does well because he wins the matches he is supposed to win. But he doesn't pull the upset so often. In fact, he has the worst record against the top 5 of anyone currently in the top 10:

• Federer: 44-19 (70%)
• Nadal: 16-11 (59%)
• Djokovic: 7-10 (41%)
• Davydenko: 2-22 (8%)
• Ferrer: 9-17 (35%)
• Roddick: 12-24 (33%)
• Nalbandian 13-18 (42%)
• Gasquet: 3-13 (19%)
• Blake: 9-25 (26%)
• Berdych: 5-14 (36%)

His records against top 10 players is not great. Here's what the matrix looked like before Shanghai 2006:

	Federer	Nadal	Ljubicic	Roddick	Davydenko	Robredo	Nalbandian	Blake
Federer	--	2-6	10-3	11-1	8-0	6-0	7-6	5-0
Nadal	6-2	--	3-1	1-1	0-0	3-0	0-0	0-2
Ljubicic	3-10	1-3	--	3-5	2-2	4-1	3-2	4-1
Roddick	1-11	1-1	5-3	--	4-0	7-0	3-1	6-2
Davydenko	0-8	0-0	2-2	0-4	--	1-1	2-4	0-4
Robredo	0-6	0-3	1-4	0-7	1-1	--	2-3	1-3
Nalbandian	6-7	0-0	2-3	1-3	4-2	3-2	--	0-0
Blake	0-5	2-0	1-4	2-6	4-0	3-1	0-0	--

Davydenko (and Robredo) didn't have winning records against anyone. Davydenko was "oh-for" against Federer (plenty of company there), Roddick, and Blake. Unluckily he got two of them in his group that year (Blake was lucky and got the 3 guys he had winning records against and not the 3 guys he had losing records against.)

For Davydenko, it gets worse by the end of 2007, as he adds Nadal to the "oh-for" group and against the other guys are still "oh-for", but he has a great record against Gonzales.


But now, in Miami, he beats Roddick and Nadal for the first time, and wins a big trophy for the first time when at least half of the top 10 players are in the draw. So this is a huge breakthrough for him, and I am very happy for him.

Why now? He had a surgery at the end of last year, which slowed his serve in the Davis Cup final, so perhaps the surgery fixed something. The investigation into the Poland match finished. He switched to a new racquet. And he's just hot.

This is good for tennis: a big breakthrough. And there are gladly a lot of them now. Marty Fish broke through in Indian Wells (first Master's Series final since 2003 and second overall, plus first win over Federer). Roddick's win in Dubai was huge (beating Nadal and Djokovic along the way and Federer this week), though that's not a breakthrough, but the best news for him in a long time. Kei Nishikori, though ranked 288, came out of nowhere and won Delray Beach. Djokovic won his first Grand Slam in Australia.