The curse of Federer
I just discovered something interesting about Roger Federer. You don't want him on your side of a bracket. "Duh!" you reply, but aside from the fact that few people manage to beat him, those that do fare poorly afterward.
His last 8 losses are (with most recent first):
| Tourn | Round | Date | Opponent | Opponents next match(es) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami | QF | Apr 2008 | Roddick | Lost in SF to Davydenko |
| Indian Wells | SF | Mar 2008 | Fish | Lost in Finals to Djokovic |
| Dubai | 1 r | early Mar 2008 | Murray | Beats Verdasco in 2r, but loses to Davydenko in 3r |
| Australian Open | SF | Jan 2008 | Djokovic | Beats Tsonga in F, but loses to (withdrew) Davydenko in Davis Cup next |
| Masters Cup | RR | Nov 2007 | Gonzales | Loses next RR to Roddick and also Davydenko |
| Paris | 2 r | early Nov 2007 | Nalbandian | Won tournament |
| Madrid | F | Oct 2007 | Nalbandian | Lost in 1r of next tournament (Basel) to Wawrinka |
| ATP Canada (Montreal) | F | Aug 2007 | Djokovic | Lost to Moya in first match in Cincinnati |
It's tough enough to beat Federer, but also tough to keep winning after beating him. Explanation? It's not that the next player is unbeatable. Many are very beatable. It's probably too much to defeat the world #1 who seems so unbeatable, and not dwell on it too much. It's such a big deal, the players lose focus on their next match. Also, whoever is up next is probably so relieved not to face Federer, they come out swinging boldly and with lots of confidence - that matchup is much better than facing Federer.
Nalbandian escapes in Paris from this curse, but he had just beaten Federer in Madrid, so perhaps it wasn't quite as big a deal mentally. Djokovic defeats Tsonga to win the Australian, but loses focus in Davis Cup play.
It's also odd that Davydenko picks up the pieces in 4 of the 7 instances on this chart (if we count him winning in RR against Gonzales).
Labels: tennis
posted by Michael @ 4/05/2008 01:46:00 PM
1 Comments
1 Comments:
An update:
Federer lost to Nadal in the Final of Monte Carlo, but Nadal went on to win his next tournament (Barcelona) but lose in the first round of Rome.
Federer lost to Stepanek in Rome, and Stepanek lost to Djokovic in the next round, failing to even win a game!
Federer lost to Nadal in Hamburg, Roland Garros, and Wimbledon, but Nadal cruised through all his next tournaments.
Federer's next loss was to Simon in Canada, who won two more matches in that tournament after beating Roger.
Next was Karlovic in Cincinnati, who won one more match before losing there.
Now, Federer has lost to Blake in the Olympics in Beijing. Can Blake keep focus like most of these other fellow (Stapanek the only one not to) and defeat Gonzalez? We'll see tomorrow morning, but I sure hope so.
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